Dear Reader,
Hope you are doing well, healthy and fine in this pandemic. We are all battling this pandemic in our own ways and so am I along with my family. We are all deep into the battle against COVID-9 and there is hope that we will be out of this soon. However, I don't think we will ever get back to our old way of life.
This blog is not about my thoughts on the pandemic but a Ctrl+C & Ctrl-V of an article I read that summarizes the situation today.
From Kevin C,
I’m reading lots of information about the latest virus “surge” – as virologists and epidemiologists all over the world try to make sense of conflicting information on the coronavirus infection rate trends. Rather than debate what is/isn’t a surge, I am going to stick with an analogy that makes the most sense to me right now: a forest fire.
A forest fire starts with a spark – it could be from lighting – it could be from a careless camper who doesn’t extinguish a campfire fully. While the cause of the forest fire is something to investigate, the more urgent question is how to best limit the amount of damage the fire causes. How, where, and when the virus started will be important to determine one day, but the pandemic has been underway for more than a year now – and the battle lines are all about damage control – just like a forest fire.
The forest fire grows and spreads by finding fuel – dry wood that is easily consumed by the inferno of a forest fire. The more it finds, the hotter it burns. This coronavirus (SARS CoV-2) is no different. It spreads by finding fuel (humans) who lack sufficient immunity to fight it off. Forest fires are often accompanied by hot, dry wind – which accelerates the spread, and makes the resulting fire larger, more explosive, and more difficult to fight and contain. In the case of SARS CoV-2, the hot, dry wind can be compared to the mutations (variants) that are occurring – changes in the virus that make the contagion shift shape and direction, making it harder to fight and contain, just like a forest fire.
The last part of the analogy is the firefighters, the brave men and women who expertly fight the fires, and risk their lives trying to limit damage to life and property. I think of vaccines as the firefighters of the pandemic. Vaccines are racing against the hot, dry wind of the variants. Where the virus finds dry wood (unprotected, unvaccinated humans), we can expect “hot spots” or “flare ups”. And those hot spots will burn until they are contained – either through non pharmaceutical interventions, like physical distancing and face protection – or until they can’t find any more dry wood to burn – due to immunity conferred by having had the disease, or by immunity conferred by vaccines.
The fight against the virus is very active right now, but only in certain parts of the world. And just like what happens during forest fire season – there are ebbs and flows – progress and setbacks – that make it very hard to keep score as to which side is winning. In the U.S., Europe and Brazil, it looks to me as though the virus is currently winning. While vaccine distribution is ramping up in many places, SARS CoV-2 had a massive head start, and is not having any trouble finding plenty of dry fuel to burn. Global infections are increasing by 30% (14-day average), a sign that the virus continues to build on its lead in certain parts of the world.
Forest firefighters often encounter people who don’t want to evacuate or leave their homes. They want to stay and “ride it out” – just like we find with hurricanes, or floods, or other natural disasters. They have many reasons for wanting to stay in place – they don’t believe the fire will affect them – they’ve survived prior disasters before, so why will this one be different? They don’t like anyone telling them what to do. The list goes on. We see the same beliefs and attitudes playing out in this natural disaster. Although I am sure the firefighter banging on the door telling someone they really need to evacuate is incredibly frustrating – in the end, people are going to make the decisions they think is best for them. It is hard for me to understand this, but I’ve come to understand I don’t have a right to impress my values and beliefs on others in this regard. All we can do for those who are vaccine hesitant is to educate and answer questions in as balanced a way as possible. For the truly “vaccine resistant”—like those who choose to shelter in place during a forest fire—I accept we’ll need to focus our attention elsewhere.
Forest firefighters are very confident in their tools and training, but they realize that their tools and training are no match for the power of nature. When temperatures are high, or winds are strong, forest fires are impossible to extinguish – nature is in clearly in charge – no matter how talented the firefighters might be. But when it begins to cool – when the winds die down – or best of all, when it begins to rain – firefighters make enormous headway, and eventually, the fire is extinguished.
Back to the other side of the analogy one last time: we badly need some “rain” in the battle against the pandemic. We need the vaccine distribution process to strengthen. We need non pharmaceutical interventions to stay in place for longer. With every vaccination, we throw water on the dry wood – and we make it harder for the virus to find fuel. Each day, millions of people all over the world are receiving the vaccines, which will speed up the end of the pandemic.
Like a forest fire – it is really a race against time – to give the firefighters a chance to succeed.
Hope you found this summary useful. Thank you Kevin C for this analogy.
Until next time.
Jyothin
PS: Let me know what you think in the comments section.